4Q25 and 1Q26 results beat our expectations

YTO Express announced its 4Q25 results: Revenue rose 7% YoY to Rmb21.121bn, net profit attributable to shareholders grew 34% YoY to Rmb1.446bn, and recurring net profit grew 41% to Rmb1.445bn, beating our expectations, mainly due to better-than-expected effect of “anti-involution” efforts.

Per-parcel data: In 4Q25, the firm's parcel volume rose 12% YoY to 8.56bn units with market share at 16% (+1.2ppt YoY), implying per-parcel revenue of Rmb2.47, falling by Rmb0.11 YoY and rising by Rmb0.10 QoQ. Cost per parcel was Rmb2.19, falling by Rmb0.16 YoY and rising by Rmb0.05 QoQ. Net profit per parcel was Rmb0.17, rising by Rmb0.04 YoY and Rmb0.04 QoQ.

The firm also announced its 1Q26 results: Revenue rose 10% YoY to Rmb18.769bn and net profit attributable to shareholders grew 61% YoY to Rmb1.378bn.

Per-parcel data: In 1Q26, the firm's parcel volume rose 13% YoY to 7.643bn units with market share at 16% (+1.0ppt YoY), implying per-parcel revenue of Rmb2.46, falling by Rmb0.06 YoY and Rmb0.01 QoQ. Per-parcel net profit was Rmb0.18, rising by Rmb0.05 YoY and Rmb0.01 QoQ.

Trends to watch

Industry level: Price competition eased amid anti-involution efforts; parcel volume growth slowed; high-quality development to remain a focus. Data from the State Post Bureau indicates that the unit price of the express delivery industry rose by 1.0% YoY or Rmb0.15 YoY in 1Q26. We believe price hikes have been gradually implemented in the industry amid anti-involution efforts since 2H25, and express delivery companies' profit per parcel may continue to improve. The industry's parcel volume grew 6% YoY in 1Q26, with growth slowing YoY, but we expect a shift towards high-quality development for the industry's customer structure.

Company level: We expect the firm’s per-parcel earnings to continue improving in 1H26, and its operational efficiency and service quality to continue improving thanks to the use of intelligent technologies. We believe the firm's earnings per parcel will continue improving thanks to anti-involution efforts. Looking ahead, we think the firm will continue to reduce costs and improve its service capabilities in the long term thanks to its efforts to use AI technologies to promote digital transformation and upgrade its nationwide networks, which we think could widen the gap between the firm and laggards in the industry.

Financials and valuation

Given better-than-expected effect of “anti-involution” efforts, we raise our 2026 earnings forecast by 14% to Rmb5,704mn, and we introduce our 2027 earnings forecast at Rmb6,745mn. The stock is trading at 13x 2026e and 11x 2027e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM rating. Given rising sector average valuation amid “anti-involution” efforts, we raise our TP by 20.9% to Rmb26.00, implying 16x 2026e and 13x 2027e P/E and offering 19% upside.

Risks

Parcel volume growth disappoints; expected changes in competitive la ndscape; sharp rises in labor costs.