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Ping An(601318):Group OPAT strengthened by AM NBV largely in-line

招银国际证券有限公司 08-25 00:00

Ping An reported 1H26 results, with Group OPAT rising 8.3% YoY to RMB84.2bn, broadly in line with our forecast (link), implying a 9% YoY increase in 2Q26 (1Q26: +7.6%). Group NPAT grew 36.1% YoY to RMB92.6bn in 1H, translating into 64.7% YoY increase in 2Q26 (vs. 1Q26: -7.4%). AM segment was the main growth driver, with OPAT surging 2.37x YoY/2.66x YoY, to RMB9.2bn/6.0bn in 1H/2Q26. OPAT of Life & Health/ P&C/Ping An Bank was +0.9%/-12.4%/+3.3% YoY, with these three core business segments combined amounting to 91% of 1H26 OPAT. NBV edged up 11.2% YoY to RMB 24.8bn (CMBI est: +12% YoY) driven by higher-thanexpected FYP increase (+19%) partially offset by a subdued margin (-1.7pct) given over 90% of new business sales shifted to participating insurance products. NAV remained solid, up 2.8% HoH in 1H26. Interim DPS rose 3.2% YoY to RMB0.98, largely in line with our forecast. Considering investment return volatilities, we finetine our FY26-28E EPS forecasts to RMB8.44/8.94/9.68 (prev. RMB8.18/9.03/9.96) and revise our SOTP-derived price target to HK$81/RMB73 (prev. HK$86/RMB75), implying 0.8x FY26E P/EV.

L&H CSM grew on right track. In 1H26, L&H operating profit grew 2.3% YoY to RMB55.9bn driven by 1) 35.7% YoY increase in investment service results partly offset by 2) 1.38x YoY surge in income tax. CSM balance rose 1.7% HoH to RMB737.8bn on 1) 18.3% YoY rise in new business CSM and 2) RMB5.8bn changes in estimates that adjusted CSM, which mirrored investment returns subject to the VFA contracts. CSM release slid 3% YoY to RMB33.6bn, implying a lower release rate (4.4%, -0.1pct YoY) due to in-force shifting toward savingstype products. We maintain our view that L&H CSM will reach an inflection by FY26E and L&H OPAT will accelerate from CSM release turnaround.

NBV largely in-line; life sales agents continued to bottom out. NBV grew 11.2% YoY to RMB24.8bn in 1H26, in line with our forecast (+12% YoY), driven by 19% YoY increase in FYP partially offset by a narrower margin (-1.7pct YoY) as more than 90% of new sales shifted toward participating policies. NBV of agency/bancassurance/other channels grew 5.4%/18.1%/44.4% YoY to RMB15.2bn/7.1bn/2.6bn. Total number of life sales agents slid 4.4% YoY to 325k whereas NBV per agent increased 16.4% YoY in 1H26. We revise down our FY26-28E NBV growth forecast to 11%-13% YoY given 1) rising participating policy share in new/in-force book, 2) tightening onshore regulatory scrutiny on bancassurance, and 3) the continued bottoming-out effect of agency force.

P&C UW profit and investment income improved. P&C insurance revenue (ISR) was up 3.8% YoY to RMB171.9bn in 1H26, with auto/non-auto ISR up 2.1%/7.2% YoY. Health & accident (H&A) insurance remained the largest growth contributor, up 35% YoY to RMB20.5bn (12% mix). CoR improved 0.1pct YoY to 95.1%, with auto CoR down 0.6pct YoY to 94.9%. P&C NPAT fell 12.4% YoY to RMB8.8bn dragged by a higher effective tax rate (32.3%, vs.1H/FY25: 20%/ 22%).

NIY/CIY fell on a low rate and lagging high-dividend equity performance. In 1H26, NIY/CIY fell 0.4pct/1.0pct YoY to 1.4%/2.1%, reflecting a prolonged lowrate environment and underperforming high-yield and low-volatility stocks. Core equities amounted to RMB1.28tn, with FVOCI stocks of RMB634bn taking 49.4% exposure (vs. FY25: 43.6%). In 1H26, the insurer increased asset allocation to OCI stocks (+17% HoH) and equity funds (+12% HoH) but reduced capital investment to TPL stocks (-21% HoH), reflecting a relatively conservative stance.

New TP at HK$81/RMB73. Ping An-H is trading at 0.6x FY26E P/EV and 0.8x FY26E P/B, with a yield of >6% and avg. three-year forward ROE >14%. We are constructive on the prospect of Ping An’s core business improvements, including 1) Life OPAT growth acceleration in 2026E as CSM balance approaches an inflection; 2) PAB profit enhancement; and 3) ongoing de-risking process in the AM segment. Considering investment return volatilities, we fine-tune our FY26-28E EPS forecasts to RMB8.44/8.94/9.68 (prev. RMB8.18/9.03/9.96). Our new price target implies 0.8x FY26E P/EV and 1.2x FY26E P/B. Maintain BUY.

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