Key takeaway

The company, a leading motorcycle manufacturer in China, is currently undergoing a transformation from OEM manufacturing to proprietary-brand globalization. Its proprietary brand, Voge, has already gained strong momentum in Europe. With its product portfolio continuously expanding, the company is wellpositioned to further increase its market share in the region.

Meanwhile, South American markets such as Brazil and Colombia are also set to become key growth drivers for the Voge in the coming years. Driven by rapid economic growth in Africa and channel expansion, the tricycle business is also experiencing rapid volume ramp-up. Revenue from all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) has also gradually become an important revenue source for the company. Over the past two years, the company has maintained high dividends to continuously reward investors. We estimate the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2026-2028 to be RMB2.094bn, RMB2.525bn, and RMB2.916bn respectively, and maintain the "Buy" rating.

Thesis

Entering a new chapter of growth, with earnings poised to re-enter an upward cycle. Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Chongqing, Loncin Motor has experienced multiple industry transitions and is currently in a new upward cycle. Zonsen New Intelligent Manufacturing is the company's controlling shareholder, owning approximately 24.55% of the equity, followed by Yufu Capital (Chongqing state-owned capital) with a stake of roughly 15.52%. Mr. Zuo Zongshen serves as the ultimate beneficial controller. The company's business mainly involves industries such as motorcycles and general machinery, and its independent brand Voge has been widely recognized by domestic and overseas consumers in the past two years. In 2025, the company achieved revenue of over RMB19bn and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of over RMB1.6bn, both hitting record highs. The company is a leading domestic export-oriented enterprise that generates significant FX earnings. Export revenue accounted for approximately 65% of total revenue in 2024, and further increased to 67% in 2025. In 2025, the company's GPM increased to 19.03%, and the proportion of the motorcycle business increased to 74%.

The global mid-to-large-displacement motorcycle market presents vast growth potential, with Chinese manufacturers accelerating their overseas expansion to capture market share. Global motorcycle sales stand at approximately 50–60mn units, with global market revenue expected to reach USD172.8bn by 2029, representing a CAGR of approximately 3.55% over 2024–2029. Global sales volume growth is supported by Asian and South American markets, whereas large-displacement motorcycle consumption in Europe and the US is driving the market's structural upgrade. The average selling price (ASP) per motorcycle in the US and European markets exceeds USD10,000. In contrast, the Asian market, while commanding a much larger volume — accounting for nearly 70% of the global market—features significantly lower average prices. In terms of displacement, the US and European markets are dominated by large-displacement motorcycles, while emerging markets are primarily characterized by small-to-mid-displacement models. According to IMMA's annual data, large-displacement motorcycles (500cc and above) account for as much as 92% of the US market. The Asian and South American markets are overwhelmingly dominated by small-displacement motorcycles, where sub-125cc models are the predominant choice. In terms of brand landscape, local and Japanese brands account for the majority of global market share, while Chinese brands are accelerating their breakthrough into the global arena.

The US motorcycle market is primarily dominated by local American brands and Japanese manufacturers, with the leading brands holding a market share of approximately 20%. In Italy—widely regarded as the birthplace of European motorcycle culture—the top five brands in terms of 2024 market share were Honda (19%), Piaggio (13%), Yamaha (11%), Kymco (10%), and BMW (6%), collectively accounting for a CR5 of 59%. In 1Q26, the sales volume of the Voge in Italy exceeded 5,700 units, up 100% YoY, with a market share of 7%, ranking 4th. The South American market is dominated by Japanese brands, while Chinese manufacturers are upgrading towards branding and localization; the Southeast Asian market is largely occupied by Japanese brands. Currently, Loncin Voge's market share in major European markets is about 4%. As its product lineup continues to expand, the company's market share in Europe is expected to hit a record high. Meanwhile, the company started to accelerate its expansion in the Latin American in 2026, officially opening stores in core areas such as Sao Paulo, Brazil, in May.

Tricycle exports deepen roots in Africa, ATVs poised for growth in Europe. In 2025, the company's tricycle business revenue reached RMB1.828bn, up 32.47% YoY to hit a record high, and its export performance was particularly impressive, contributing RMB1.055bn in revenue. The company has built a 110-300cc full-category special-purpose model matrix for tricycles, suitable for diverse scenarios such as logistics, urban services, and special operations. Benefiting from Africa's economic development, the company's tricycle business in Africa is expected to continue contributing to growth. Overseas, the company has achieved full coverage of core regions in West, East, and North Africa, while successfully expanding into new territories in Central and West Asia. It ha s also entered emerging markets such as India, Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and completed the rollout of its electric tricycle business in Laos. In 2025, the company's ATV business achieved a revenue of RMB654mn, up 62.54% YoY, and its sales volume increased by 53.09% YoY, with the CAGR over the past three years reaching 71.90%. The Company has built its product portfolio around two main categories— ATV and UTV—anchored by the XWolf series for ATVs and the UWolf series for UTVs, forming a fulldisplacement product matrix spanning from 200cc to 1000cc. Leveraging the brand recognition and sales & service network that Voge has already established in Europe, Latin America, and other markets, the company is able to achieve more efficient and cost-effective overseas penetration for its LONCIN ATV products. In 2025, the company added 111 new sales outlets, bringing the total to 451.

Investment recommendation: The company, a leading motorcycle manufacturer in China, is currently undergoing a transformation from OEM manufacturing to proprietary-brand globalization. Its proprietary brand, Voge, has already gained strong momentum in Europe. With its product portfolio continuously expanding, the company is well-positioned to further increase its market share in the region. Meanwhile, South American markets such as Brazil and Colombia are also set to become key growth drivers for the Voge in the coming years. Driven by rapid economic growth in Africa and channel expansion, the tricycle business is also experiencing rapid volume ramp-up. Revenue from all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) has also gradually become an important revenue source for the company. Over the past two years, the company has maintained high dividends to continuously reward investors. We estimate the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2026-2028 to be RMB2.094bn, RMB2.525bn, and RMB2.916bn respectively, and maintain the "Buy" rating.

Risks:

1. Declining industry demand: The global macroeconomy may be under pressure, and overseas consumer discretionary demand may be weakening. Consumer demand for motorcycles and ATVs in Europe and the US may fall short of expectations. Meanwhile, local economic fluctuations and insufficient purchasing power of residents in Africa may suppress the export shipments of tricycles.

2. Intensified competition in overseas markets: Japanese and local brands maintain solid barriers in European and American markets, and domestic peers are accelerating overseas expansion. The company's overseas market expansion for Voge medium and large displacement motorcycles and ATVs may fall short of expectations, and intensified price competition may weigh on its profit margins.

3. New product iteration and product promotion fall short of expectations: The sales ramp-up of new medium and large displacement models and new high-end ATVs may be slow, and the pace of model R&D and iteration may lag behind the industry, dragging down the overall revenue and profit growth.

4. Dividend policy falls short of expectations: Increased future capex and fluctuating operating cash flows may lead to a lower dividend payout ratio and dividend amounts falling short of market expectations, thereby weakening shareholder returns.

5. Channel construction and overseas operations: It is difficult to manage overseas dealers, and the progress of expanding sales outlets and building after-sales systems may be slow. Insufficient localized operation capabilities overseas may affect the long-term overseas expansion.