Results Review

2025 and 1Q26 results in line with market expectations Yunnan Tin announced its 2025 results: Revenue rose 3.7% YoY to Rmb43.5bn; attributable net profit rose 36% YoY to Rmb1.97bn. In 4Q25, revenue fell 29% YoY and 32% QoQ to Rmb9.1bn; attributable net profit rose 37% YoY to Rmb221mn (-68% QoQ).

The company announced its 1Q26 results: Revenue rose 60% YoY and 71% QoQ to Rmb15.6bn; net profit attributable to shareholders rose 74% YoY and 293% QoQ to Rmb868mn. We attribute the notable YoY growth in earnings in 2025 and 1Q26 to higher prices of major mineral products.

Higher sales volume and prices of mineral tin and rising prices of other mineral products boosted earnings in 2025.

Output: According to corporate filings, the firm in 2025 planned to build regional mines, systematically allocate mining and processing resources, and promote the recycling and reuse of tailings resources. The raw metal output of tin, copper, and zinc at the company was up 2%, down 9%, and up 6% YoY in 2025.

Prices: Wind data shows that the average prices of tin, copper, zinc, and indium in China were up 11%, up 8%, down 2%, and up 2% YoY in 2025.

Earnings rose notably YoY and QoQ in 1Q26, thanks to rising prices of the firm's main mineral products. Wind data shows that the average prices of tin, copper, zinc, and indium jumped 49%, 30%, 1%, and 62% YoY in 1Q26 (up 28%, 13%, 7%, and 69% QoQ).

Trends to watch

Rich tin and indium resources lay a solid foundation for the firm's leading position in the industry; higher sales volume and prices to boost earnings growth.

The firm has ranked No.1 in the world in tin output and sales volume since 2005. Its domestic and global market shares for tin metals reached 53% and 27% in 2025 (up 5.4ppt and 2.1ppt YoY).

The firm has the largest reserves of indium resources in the world, and possess the largest primary indium production base in China. The firm plans to focus on internal search and external expansion and increase reserves and output so as to coordinate efforts to improve existing resources, add new resources, and acquire external resources.

Demand for tin solders and semiconductor compounds is growing at an accelerating pace amid the AI boom. We expect average prices of tin and indium to rise amid frequent disruptions to tin supply and limited growth of indium supply.

Financials and valuation

Given rising prices of metals and the firm's major mineral products, we raise our 2026 earnings forecast 44% to Rmb4.12bn, and introduce our 2027 earnings forecast at Rmb4.57bn. The stock is trading at 14.1x 2026e and 12.7x 2027e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating, and raise our target price 49% to Rmb38.84 to reflect higher earnings forecasts. Our TP implies 15.5x 2026e and 14x 2027e P/E, offering 10.2% upside.

Risks

Higher-than-expected tin supply; disappointing downstream demand; disappointing in crease in the firm's ore output.