Key takeaway

The main site's operations continued an upward trend in Q4, with key highlights including: 1) Q4 revenue of 510 million yuan, up 12.3% year-over-year; excluding share-based compensation expenses, net profit attributable to the parent company was approximately 120 million yuan, up 29.7% year-over-year, outpacing Q3's ~22% growth rate. 2) MIC paid members achieved sequential growth for nine consecutive quarters, reaching a new record high. 3) AI MIC's penetration rate exceeded 60%, with annual revenue doubling. 4) Full-year and Q4 cash revenue growth rates for 2025 were 19.1% and 16.5%, respectively, both exceeding the corresponding revenue growth rates for the same period. Looking ahead, the key operational target for 2026 is to achieve a YoY growth rate of at least 20% in MIC cash collections, with strong cash revenue growth ensuring future performance delivery. In the medium to long term, the company has growth potential in expanding light industrial clients and developing future cross-border payment products.

1. The strong performance of Made-in-China.com (MIC) is the core driver of revenue growth. MIC's full-year revenue reached 1.60 billion yuan, up 18.11% year-on-year; H2 revenue grew 19.0% yearon- year, representing a 1.9 percentage points increase compared to H1's growth rate. As of the end of 2025, MIC had approximately 29,800 paid members, an increase of 8.7% year-over-year and 2% compared to Q3 2025, marking nine consecutive quarters of sequential growth and reaching a new record high.

2. AI revenue doubled in growth. In 2025, AI business revenue reached 53.107 million yuan, up 116.9% year-on-year, primarily driven by AI MIC. AI MIC's cash revenue reached 90.83 million yuan, up 88.5% year-on-year. As of the end of 2025, the cumulative number of members who purchased AI MIC reached approximately 18,500, doubling from the previous year-end and accounting for 62.1% of MIC's paid members.

3. Plans to distribute an additional cash dividend of 0.7 yuan per share. Including the interim dividend of 0.6 yuan per share, the total dividend amounts to 1.3 yuan per share, representing a dividend payout ratio of 81.9%.

4. Forward-looking indicators indicate sustained future performance growth. 1) Cash revenue in 2025 was 2.36 billion yuan, up 19.1% year-on-year, largely in line with expectations and growing faster than total revenue. As of the end of 2025, the combined total of contract liabilities and other non-current liabilities reached 1.63 billion yuan, setting a new record high. 2) In 2025, platform traffic increased by 33% YoY, with emerging markets showing strong performance. Traffic growth in the Middle East/Latin America/Africa increased by +44%/+44%/+38%.

We forecast the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026-28 to be 535/688/810 million yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 6.2%/28.6%/17.8%. Based on the closing price on March 19, the corresponding P/E multiples are 24.0x/18.6x/15.8x. We maintain "Buy" rating.

Event

On March 19, the company released its 2025 financial report. In 2025, the operating revenue reache d 1.914 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 504 million yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year. Excluding share-based payment expenses, the net profit stood at 559 million yuan, marking a 24.01% year-on-year growth. The non-GAAP net profit reached 548 million yuan, reflecting a 25.19% year-on-year increase and surpassing the 20% growth target set for the equity incentive assessment.

Thesis

1. Q4 revenue reached a record high, increasing 12.3% year-over-year. MIC paid memberships also hit a new record, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of sequential growth. Made-in-China.com is the core driver of revenue growth. Breaking down volume and price: 1) Volume: MIC's paid membership repeatedly reached new highs. By the end of 2025, MIC had approximately 29,800 paid members, representing an 8.7% year-on-year increase and a 2% growth from Q3 2025, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of sequential growth. 2) Price: The 2025 ARPPU also showed significant growth, rising 8.7% year-on-year to 53,700 yuan per year.

2. Excluding the impact of share-based payment expenses, Q4 net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 29.7% year-over-year. In Q4, net profit attributable to the parent company declined by 6.65% year-over-year, primarily due to share-based payment expenses. After adjustments, net profit reached approximately RMB 120 million, reflecting a 29.7% year-over-year increase—surpassing Q3's growth rate of 22.2%. Among them, the Q4 gross margin was 78.7%, up 0.16 percentage point quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) but down 2.17 percentage points year-over-year (YoY). The YoY decline was primarily due to increased promotional efforts on the main platform, though the impact on profit margins remained manageable, with the overall gross margin staying around 80%. On the expense side, the Q4 2025 expense ratio decreased by 1.09 percentage points YoY, as both selling and administrative expense ratios declined. Despite the impact of share-based payment, the expense ratio still saw a reduction, reflecting improved operational efficiency.

3. The main site's traffic maintained a growth rate of over 30%, particularly in emerging markets. Full-year platform traffic increased by 33% YoY, with first-half traffic up 35% YoY. By region, emerging markets showed strong growth—Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and South Asia traffic rose by 44%, 44%, 38%, and 35% respectively for the full year. In Q3, Middle East traffic grew 45% YoY, while Latin America, Africa, and Europe all saw growth exceeding 30%.

4. AI Strategy: The paid penetration rate of AI MIC has increased to over 60%. Focus on the product iteration and commercialization progress of the buyer-side AI procurement assistant, SourcingAI. 1) As of the end of 2025, the cumulative number of members who purchased AI MIC reached approximately 18,500, doubling from the previous year-end and accounting for 62.1% of MIC's paying members. 2) On October 22, the company launched the buyer-side AI tool SourcingAI 2.0, which assists buyers in product searches and purchasing decisions, similar to Alibaba.com's AI procurement assistant Accio. Currently, SourcingAI is undergoing continuous product optimization and is expected to achieve commercialization in the future, potentially adopting a subscription-based monetization model similar to Accio. Accio implemented commercialization through membership subscriptions, with Starter and Pro versions priced at USD59 and USD199 per year, respectively, equivalent to thousands of RMB per year. The company's MIC buyer base has reached tens of millions, unlocking growth potential for AI-driven revenue. 3) Additionally: In September last year, the company launched "Ask Mravin," an AI coach for sales teams, empowering them throughout the presales, sales assistance, and team management processes, with the potential to enhance team efficiency.

5. Q4 cash revenue growth was 16.45%, with full-year growth at 19.1%, largely in line with expectations. Full-year cash revenue growth outpaced overall revenue growth, ensuring continued performance growth. Regarding contract liabilities and other non-current liabilities, the total amount reached 1.63 billion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, setting a new record. On a quarterly basis, the figures showed steady growth, with Q4 of this year reaching another milestone. From Q4 2024 to Q3 2025, the amount remained stable at approximately 1.3 billion yuan, while from Q4 2023 to Q3 2024, it held steady at around 1.0–1.1 billion yuan.

6. In the medium to long term, we are optimistic about expanding light industrial clients, which will drive member growth and increase cross-border payments. The company focuses on foreign trade, enhancing cross-border buyer and seller experiences through Made-in-China.com and AI tools. It promotes online transaction services in line with market trends, streamlines online payments, and is currently expanding it s client base in the light industrial sector, where transactions are better suited for online platforms. The company's Made-in-China.com obtained an MSO license in Hong Kong in 2021, enabling compliant and regulated crossborder payment and settlement services. It has also launched "Global Pay Pro," a multi-currency cash collection service. Expanding light industrial clients not only creates growth opportunities for paid memberships on the main platform but also introduces new monetization models, such as transaction-based commissions on GMV.

Risks: There are risks that paid user growth and ARPPU may fall short of expectations, that the company’s cash collection pace may underperform, and that global economic growth may lag projections. Other risks include weaker-than-expected domestic foreign trade support policies, delays in the disbursement of foreign trade subsidies, and slower-than-expected development of generative AI technologies. The company also faces risks related to the complexity of product R&D, potential delays in product launches, rising marketing and user acquisition costs, talent attrition, increased labor costs, tightening regulatory oversight, underperformance in commercialization efforts, intensifying market competition, cross-border operational challenges, credit defaults and loan losses from financing clients, as well as risks of refusing to pay in online transactions.