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CHINA MERCHANTS B (200024)

中国国际金融有限公司 2012-10-22

1~3Q EPS was Rmb1.41In 1~3Q12, CMPD’s revenue rose 29.5% YoY to Rmb16.15bn, andnet profits were up 16.0% YoY to Rmb2.42bn or Rmb1.41/sh.

Persistent booking of Longyuan Aohaiting, gross marginhits an all-time high in 3Q: revenue rose 38.4% YoY toRmb6.07bn in 3Q, Rmb1.5bn of which we believe was fromLongyuan Aohaiting, which had an ASP of >Rmb33,000/sqm.

Gross margin after business tax hit a record high of 38.4% in3Q, thanks to high-end project booking.

Stable sales in Beijing and still high revenue visibility:

Contracted sales totaled 0.56mn sqm or Rmb8.58bn in 3Q,down 18.8% and 16.9% QoQ respectively. We estimate onethird of the contracted sales revenue was from BeijingLongyuan and Gongyuan 1872.

Faster land acquisition in major cities: In 3Q, the companyspent a total of Rmb5.71bn acquiring five new parcels in theYangtze Delta Region, Harbin and Shenzhen. The plots have acombined GFA of 1.739mn sqm and attributable GFA of1.26mn sqm, still concentrated in tier-1/-2 cities.

Trends to watchThe company already sold Rmb24.71bn or 1.729mn sqm of propertyprojects in 1~3Q, suggesting FY12’s total sales will exceedRmb30bn. However, its net margin may drop to the industry average(14~15%) over the next two years, as booking of high-marginprojects in Beijing and Shenzhen will end and more projects in tier-2cities will be booked.

Valuation and recommendationWe maintain our 2012/13e EPS estimate of Rmb1.83/Rmb2.07,since its operations are in line with our expectations. The B sharestock is trading at 7.0x/6.1x 2012/13e P/E, implying a 60% discountto 2013e NAV. Maintain BUY rating.

RisksPolicy and macro economy risks.

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