Key takeaway

Nox Bellcow, the main ODM arm of Green Pine — has turned the corner and is now entering a profitability ramp-up phase. In the short term, the onboarding of mid-sized domestic brands and international clients, and facial mask product mix optimization coupled with capacity utilization ramp-up, will enable operating leverage to drive greater profit margin elasticity than simple volume growth. Over the medium to long term, the company is well aligned with both the rapid-response trend in beauty and the rise of domestic Chinese brands. With a compliance and R&D framework that stands as relatively comprehensive among local peers, it is positioned to follow the platform-growth trajectory of leading Korean ODM players and evolve into the foundational manufacturing backbone for China's domestic beauty industry.

Thesis

Company overview:

Operating through its fully-owned subsidiary Nox Bellcow, Green Pine provides end-to-end ODM solutions spanning manufacturing, raw material sourcing, and quality testing. The company's product range includes masks, skincare, and wet wipes, catering to a diverse client base of domestic and global brands. In 2025, the company's revenue was RMB2.219bn, up 14.4% YoY, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB153mn, up 180.2% YoY; in 1Q26, the revenue was RMB480mn, up 14.7% YoY, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB22mn, up 1,048.1% YoY. In 2025, facial mask revenue accounts for about 48%, up 30% YoY, skincare remained steady, and the proportion of wet wipes declined. The company has no actual controller, its core asset is Nox Bellcow, and the senior management is led by the Nox Bellcow founding team.

Industry analysis:

Having pivoted to a high-quality development trajectory, China's beauty market scaled ~RMB822.5bn in 2025, marking a 6.2% YoY growth. While the OEM+ODM manufacturing market keepsgrowing, the ODM segment stays highly fragmented — a classic "two giants, several strong contenders, plus a long tail" pattern. COSMAX China leads with ~RMB 3.1bn in revenue, followed by Nox Bellcow at ~RMB 2.2bn, yet even the top players hold less than 5% market share each. With cosmetic filings staying high and brand CR1 0 flattening out, competitive dynamics are now defined by rapid product refresh cycles and agile supply chain responsiveness. With regulators tightening accountability for product registrants and notifiers, ODM providers that integrate R&D, compliance, and agile manufacturing are gaining greater strategic relevance. The resulting industry evolution parallels Korea's beauty sector, where brands went asset -light and manufacturing shifted toward platform-based models.

Company highlights:

Turnaround. Nox Bellcow turned profitable in 2024. For 2025, revenue reached RMB 2.211bn, with net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB202mn, translating into a GPM of 20.3% and a NPM of 9.1%. ② Customers and structure. Mid-sized domestic brands and international clients continue to be onboarded, and facial masks drive GPM to recover to 20.6%. ③ Capacity ramp-up. Overall capacity utilization is far from saturated, and operating leverage unlocks profit elasticity. ④ Compliance and R&D. Relative to local peers, the Company's certification framework, R&D scale, and formulation asset disclosures are notably more comprehensive. In the short run, the company's performance is propelled by servicing high-growth brand accounts and realizing operating margin improvements. In the longer term, it is well-positioned to capitalize on the ascent of domestic Chinese brands and the industry's pivot toward rapid-response manufacturing, potentially mirroring the platform-based growth model of Korea's ODM powerhouses.

Investment recommendation:

We project Green Pine's total revenue for 2026E, 2027E, and 2028E at RMB 2.45 bn, RMB 2.646 bn, and RMB 2.812 bn, representing YoY growth of 10.4%, 8.0%, and 6.3%, respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecast at RMB184mn, RMB224mn, and RMB260mn for the corresponding periods, translating to YoY growth of 20.3%, 21.7%, and 15.7%, respectively. The implied P/E stand at 16.4x, 13.5x, and 11.6x, respectively. Near-term growth is anchored by fast-growing brand clients, with operating leverage set to unlock rapid margin expansion. The 2025 earnings turnaround is already evident: masks are surging, skincare is accelerating, and the wet wipes segment has been proactively rationalized for a cleaner mix, sending GPM and NPM o n a clear upward path. Longer-term, the company is riding the twin waves of domestic brand rise and beauty's fast-response shift, positioning it to emulate the platform growth model of Korea's ODM giants. We initiate coverage on the company with an "Overweight" rating.

Risks

1. Fluctuations in downstream demand and customer orders. The company's financial performance is contingent upon order placement from brand clients. However, with the beauty consumption market having shifted to a low-to-moderate growth trajectory, brand clients' new product launch and inventory destocking cycles have become increasingly volatile. The top five customers contribute roughly 30% of cosmet ics revenue, and the client list turns over frequently. If key clients cut order share or lack timely reorders after a hero product declines, earnings recovery may lag expectations.

2. Intensifying industry competition and over-concentration in the product mix. The domestic ODM landscape remains fragmented, with leading players coexisting alongside a long tail of smaller contract manufacturers. Intensifying competition on both pricing and delivery lead times persists. The company's top line has grown increasingly reliant on high-value-added product categories, particularly facial masks. A potential downturn in the mask category or mounting pricing pressure could materially impair the sustainability of recent GPM gains.

3. Capacity utilization and cost fluctuation. The capacity utilization rate for facial masks and skincare is still ramping up, and operating leverage is bidirectional: If orders miss expectations, the benefit of fixed cost absorption may be limited. Raw materials account for over 60% of total costs. If raw material prices rise and are difficult to pass on to customers, it may also erode GPM.

4. Regulatory compliance and export business risks. With new rules reinforcing registrant/notifier accountabilities, ODM providers must now juggle filing, QC, and factory audit support. Any further regulatory tightening or certification lapses could put major client orders at risk. The company also serves international customers and benefits from the overseas expansion trend; changes in overseas demand or the trade environment may cause order fluctuations.

5. Corporate governance and asset impairment risks. With no controlling shareholder and a fragmented ownership structure, the company's business continuity depends heavily on retaining its core management te am. Historically, there have been one-off losses such as idle land and impairment of construction in progress; profit fluctuations may still occur if subsequent asset operations or customer credit deteriorate.