Mindray reported 3Q26 revenue of RMB9,350mn (+2.9% YoY; +6.0% currencyneutral), taking 9M26 revenue to RMB27.1bn (+4.9% YoY; +7.4% currency-neutral). Net profit declined 2.5% YoY to RMB2,517mn in 3Q26 and 3.2% YoY to RMB7,564mn in 9M26, mainly reflecting FX losses and higher component costs. Excluding FX, net profit grew 1.8% YoY in 3Q26 and 6.3% YoY in 9M26. With domestic destocking being largely completed by year-end and overseas momentum maintained, we expect Mindray’s growth to accelerate into 2027E.

Overseas business remained the main growth driver. Overseas revenue reached RMB14.4bn in 9M26, up 11.0% YoY, or 16.0% YoY in USD terms, accounting for 53% of total revenue. Revenue from Europe increased ~20% YoY thanks to the rapid growth in the UK, France, Germany and Italy. Latin America and APAC revenue grew ~18% and ~14% YoY, respectively, where India, Mexico and Brazil etc. all reported robust growth. In addition, Mindray expanded cooperation with a major US IDN from monitoring and anaesthesia to ultrasound recently, which should provide incremental support to its growth in America from 2027E, in our view. Overseas IVD remained strong, which increased ~20% YoY in 9M26, with immunoassay up more than 30%. Mindray received 35 new TLA orders and completed 20 TLA installations in 9M26, which we expect to drive continued rapid growth of overseas IVD business.

Domestic business was resilient despite a higher base in 3Q25. Domestic revenue declined ~1% YoY to RMB4.5bn in 3Q26 but rose 2.0% QoQ. Within this, domestic IVD grew 4% QoQ while immunoassay increased 7% QoQ. Mindray’s combined share in chemistry, immunoassay and coagulation has increased from 10% in 1H25 to 15% in 3Q26, according to the Company. Domestic TLA new orders and installations were nearly 400 and 300 in 9M26, respectively, which have surpassed the total in FY25. We think these will support future reagent volume growth. Moreover, domestic emerging business reported revenue growth of 20% YoY in 9M26. As channel destocking is expected to largely complete by year-end, we expect domestic growth to improve in 2027E, led by IVD share gains and continued expansion in emerging businesses.

Emerging businesses are becoming a more meaningful growth contributor. Revenue from emerging businesses grew 20.5% YoY to RMB4.7bn in 9M26, and reached 17.5% of total sales. Minimally invasive surgery and intervention both grew more than 20% YoY, with surgical high-value consumables more than doubled and PFA procedures exceeded 10,000 in 9M26. We see emerging businesses as an increasingly important driver of Mindray’s medium-term earnings growth.

Maintain BUY. We roll forward our DCF model to 2027E-34E from 2026E-34E, as valuation is increasingly anchored on 2027E. We cut our earnings forecasts modestly to reflect raw-material cost pressure. Therefore, we derive our TP of RMB214.84 based on an 8-year DCF model. Key risks include FX volatility, IVD pricing pressure, weaker hospital procurement and slower overseas expansion.